2022 Webinar: Extreme Precipitation and Dam Safety in a Changing Climate

Registration Closed

Essential to dam design and dam safety is the reliable assessment of hydrometeorological hazards such as extreme precipitation events and associated flooding. The traditional methods for assessing these hazards, such as estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation, assume stationarity in risk over time and into the future. However, the climate at global, national, and local scales has become clearly non-stationary in recent decades, and there is increasing evidence that climate change is affecting key aspects of extreme events and storm environments. The best available science indicates that these changes and their overall impacts on extreme precipitation will become even larger over the next several decades.

In this webinar, we will first review the physical mechanisms that govern extreme precipitation events, the state of the science on the observed and expected changes in these mechanisms, and the overall effects on extreme precipitation events in the U.S. Then, we will describe how key federal agencies and others in the dam safety community have responded to these risks from a changing climate by reconsidering traditional practices, conducting pilot studies, and issuing new guidance. We will conclude by outlining potential pathways for dam safety programs and dam owners to incorporate climate-change risk into regulation and practice, highlighting recent experience in the states of Colorado and New Mexico.

Key Take-Aways:
● Learn how assumptions of climate stationarity are embedded in current practice.
● Understand the physical mechanisms that govern extreme precipitation.
● Learn about the state of scientific knowledge on climate change and its anticipated effects on extreme precipitation.
● Learn about some of the responses by the dam safety community to the challenges posed by a changing climate.

Jeff Lukas

Principal

Lukas Climate Research and Consulting, LLC.

Jeff Lukas is a climate researcher and consultant with over 20 years’ experience working with water managers and other decision-makers to help them better understand and prepare for risks from weather and climate. He was lead author of the Climate Change in Colorado report for the Colorado Water Conservation Board, and co-author of the report, Considering Climate Change in the Estimation of Extreme Precipitation for Dam Safety, part of the Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study (CO-NM REPS).

Kelly Mahoney

Research Meteorologist

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Physical Sciences Laboratory

Kelly Mahoney is a research meteorologist in NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL)/Hydrometeorology Modeling and Applications Team. Kelly's research background and areas of expertise include extreme precipitation, climate change, and weather forecasting. While her work spans weather and climate timescales, a constant is her focus on research applications and scientific communication. She is passionate about working with stakeholders at the local, state, and federal levels to better inform water management, forecasting, and emergency preparedness.

Mark Perry

Dam Safety Engineer

State of Colorado, Colorado Dam Safety

Mark Perry has 25 years of experience in water resources engineering in the private sector, federal government, and state government. He had the opportunity to work on the Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study and has since worked on its implementation. He has developed simplified hydrologic risk methods geared towards state dam safety regulation and continues to work with Colorado State University on a research study to improve extreme flood modeling in the Rocky Mountain region.

Charles N. Thompson

Chief, Dam Safety Bureau

New Mexico Office of the State Engineer

Charles (Chuck) Thompson, P.E., is the chief of the Dam Safety Bureau in the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer. He has three decades of engineering experience obtained in both the private and public sectors. Charles has held the position of bureau chief for dam safety since August 2012, where he feels privileged to be able to work with a group of highly skilled and dedicated professionals. He was a co-sponsor of the Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study. He currently serves on the Board of Directors for the Association of State Dam Safety Officials.