Hydrologic Hazards – Estimating Probabilities of Extreme Floods: On-Demand
Hydrologic hazard curves are critical flood loading inputs for dam and levee safety risk assessments. Over the past decade, some federal agencies have developed and applied new tools and data sets to estimate hydrologic hazard curves, which are graphs of peak flows, volume, or reservoir stages versus Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP). Hydrologic hazard curves provide a full probability distribution for the flood hazard, covering the range of extreme flood probabilities with uncertainty with AEPs typically to 1/100,000, and relevant for assessing hydrologic failure modes. Streamflow-based statistical methods and Monte-Carlo rainfall-runoff methods are the main approaches used to estimate hydrologic hazards. This webinar provides an overview and background on current data and methods used in estimating hydrologic hazard curves for dam and levee safety. Participants will gain an understanding of: hydrologic hazard curves for dam and levee safety risk analysis, extreme storm, flood, and paleoflood data sets for hydrologic hazard curves; hydrologic hazard methods currently in use by USACE and other federal agencies for dam safety risk analysis; the philosophy and approach used to integrate meteorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology to estimate hydrologic hazard curves with uncertainty; and ongoing activities and future directions in estimating hydrologic hazard curves.
Dr. John F. England, Jr.
Hydrologic Hazards Lead, USACE
Dr. John F. England, Jr. is a Hydrologic Hazards Lead with the USACE Risk Management Center in Denver, Colorado, with nearly 25 years of experience in flood hydrology and dam safety. John's research, project interests, and expertise in hydrology include: extreme flood understanding, estimation and prediction; rainfall-runoff modeling; flood frequency; paleoflood hydrology; stochastic hydrology; and risk analysis. Dr. England also has experience and interests in extreme storm rainfall, stochastic storm transposition, rainfall frequency, Probable Maximum Precipitation, and hydrometeorology. Since 1997, John has developed and applied probabilistic flood hazard techniques to evaluate the risk and safety of Bureau of Reclamation dams, and has overseen implementation of risk-based flood methods for the Reclamation dam safety program. Dr. England is also heavily involved in ongoing Federal efforts to improve guidelines and techniques for flood frequency and extreme storm rainfall under the Subcommittee on Hydrology. Along with colleagues at USGS, USACE, and Cornell University, John is the lead author on revising the US National Flood Frequency Guidelines called Bulletin 17C. John is also working on improving extreme storm rainfall data bases and precipitation frequency methods for evaluating critical infrastructure with the Extreme Storm Events Work Group. John has numerous publications including journal articles, book chapters, conference proceedings, guidelines, technical manuals, and reports. Dr. England received his M.S. and Ph.D. in hydrology and water resources from Colorado State University, has a B.A. in liberal arts from Fairfield University, and a B.S. in Civil Engineering from the University of Connecticut. He is a registered Professional Hydrologist with the American Institute of Hydrology, a registered Professional Engineer in Colorado, and holds a Diplomate, Water Resource Engineer (D.WRE) from the American Academy of Water Resources Engineers (AAWRE). Dr. England was awarded the Bureau of Reclamation Engineer of the Year and nominated as one of the top 10 Federal Engineers in 2008. Prior to USACE and Reclamation, John worked as a consultant in New England and as a research hydrologist with the the U.S. Geological Survey and Colorado Climate Center.